Every line starts as a rough draft. Market Maturity tells you how close it is to the final version.
What it measures
Market Maturity is a single score from 0% to 100% that describes how developed a line is. A low score means the market is young: prices are still being tested, limits are small, and big moves are still possible. A high score means the market has been worked over, has real money behind it, and has mostly settled.
Put simply, the higher the score, the less room the line should have for a major move.
What goes into it
The score combines three factors, each weighted by how much it tells you about a line's stability:
- Time to game. This is the biggest factor. Markets sharpen as game time approaches: news comes out, lineups are confirmed, and the last sharp money arrives. A line a day out gets half credit here, and it reaches full credit at game time.
- Liquidity. This uses Mass Liquidity measured against a benchmark. More money in the market means more confidence behind the price.
- Line tightness. This measures how little margin the sharp books build into their prices. Tight lines mean the books are confident in the number, but that only counts when there's money on both sides. An even split counts fully. If all the money sits on one side, a tight line gets no credit, because a one-sided market hasn't really been tested.
How to use it
- Low maturity is where lines still move. If you like a side early, that's when the price is least settled. It could get better or worse before game time.
- High maturity makes a line hard to argue with. A line near game time, with deep liquidity and tight two-sided pricing, reflects the market's best estimate. Beating that number is much harder.
- Use it to weigh everything else. A lopsided Liquidity Pressure bar or a jump in Mass Liquidity means more in a mature market than in one that's still forming.
- It freezes at game time. Once the game starts, the pregame market is closed, and the score stays where it ended.
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